CHENAB VALLEY TO PLAY DECISIVE ROLE IN DODA-UDHAMPUR

SHEIKH NASIR HUSSAIN
Kishtwar: Erstwhile Doda district, better known as Chenab Valley with three district will play a key role in deciding the fate of 14 candidates in the fray, including "four Singhs" locked in an interesting electoral battle, in Doda-Udhampur parliamentary constituency.The constituency has a total of 13,62,382 electorate and is going to polls in second phase on April 23.
Official figures reveal that out of 1362,382 voters in Doda-Udhampur parliamentary constituency, 457608 voters belong to the three districts of Kishtwar, Doda and Ramban. It is thus clear that the Chinab Valley will have a key factor in deciding the fate of the fourteen candidate in fray for the parliamentary constituency.
Out of 14 contestants, the neck and neck race will be between Congress candidate and sitting MP Lal Singh and BJP candidate Dr Nirmal Singh. Other two key-players are Jammu and Kashmir National Panthers Party (JKNPP) candidate Prof Bhim Singh and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) nominee Balbir Singh.
Official sources told The Bold Voice that Kishtwar district has a total electorate of 125185 (Male 63966 and Female 60219), while Doda has 212979 total electorate with 110541 male and 102438 female voters. Similarly, Ramban district, has total electorate of 119444 with 66066 male and 56378 female voters.
Though the Doda district has witnessed an increase of 48794 voters since 2004, Kishtwar district recorded decrease of 19428 voters since the year 2004. Similarly, Ramban district has also witnessed a decline of -13264 voters since 2004.
If the ongoing trend is any indication, Peoples Democratic Party is likely to give a tough fight to the Congress and BJP. Political pundits are of the opinion that PDP, though has a little chance to win, it can frustrate the winning prospect of Congress in particular.
The ongoing tussle within the Congress and National Conference and lack of understanding especially at the worker level is also likely to be an added advantage to the PDP in all the three districts.
If insiders have to be believed, Congress candidate Choudhary Lal Singh is not in the good books of some section of Congress leaders in the three districts, which may create a problem for him. Another major reason was said to be that National Conference supporters and workers were not able to digest the new alliance as they were seen fighting tooth and nail with Congress in recently held assembly elections as such they will likely to prefer vote in favour of PDP or JKNPP instead of Congress.
The youth of the Doda-Udhampur constituency is another key factor. In sync with the idea of "Youngistan", over four lakh youth voters of the constituency will exercise their franchise on April 23.
On the whole, the youth voters constitute over 32 percent of the total electorate in this constituency. 4,47,400 youth voters are between the age-group of 20-29 years. 29,000 voters are between the age-group of 18-19 and will cast their votes for the first time. The parliamentary constituency has the second highest number of electorate in the state after Jammu-Poonch constituency and comprises 17 assembly segments.
Udhampur and Reasi assembly segments top the list of young voters with 33,000 young electorate each. Bani assembly segment has the least number of young electorate i.e., 12,000. Interestingly, Reasi assembly segment has the maximum number of rightful representatives of ‘Youngistan’.
In this particular assembly segment, 27,000 electorate would be the first timers, while in Bani this number would be the lowest i.e., 750.
Three assembly constituencies have over 30,000 youth electorate and they included Kathua (32,800), Ramnagar (32,700) and Bhaderwah (32,000).
While nine assembly segments have over 20,000 youth electorate registered for this parliamentary election. These included Hiranagar (28,500), Ramban (27,500), Inderwal (26,000), Banihal (25,400), Kishtwar (23,000), Gulabgarh (21,850) and Basohli (20,970), while Chenani and Billawar have equal number of youth electorate i.e., 26,850.
In 1967 elections, Udhampur constituency was represented by Congress candidate Brigadier Ghansara Singh while in 1971 midterm polls, the constituency was represented by Dr. Karan Singh again on a Congress ticket. In 1977 Lok Sabha elections, the seat was again won by Dr. Karan Singh as INC candidate. In the midterm 1980 parliamentary elections, the seat was yet again won by Dr. Karan Singh, however, this time on INC (U) ticket. In 1984, the seat was won by G L Dogra as INC candidate while in 1989 general election, Udhampur seat was won by Dharam Chand of INC. This seat had been a stronghold of Congress till 1996 when for the first time it was won by BJP. In 1996 the seat was won by Janak Raj Gupta on BJP ticket.
After registering three consecutive wins from the traditional Congress bastion, BJP again lost it to Congress in 2004 elections. Sitting MP Lal Singh had defeated former Union Minister of State for Defence and BJP candidate Prof Chaman Lal Gupta, who won twice from this seat, in last LS polls with a margin of 47,175 votes. Singh had polled 2,40,872 votes while Gupta secured 1,93,697 votes. The total poll percentage was recorded at 45.09. The total voters in the constituency include 8,654 service electors. Out of the total electorate, 7,16,405 male and 6,45,977 female voters have been registered for 2009 Lok Sabha elections. While in 2004 parliamentary polls, there were 13,48,721 voters. Kathua district leads with 4,04,895 voters who include 2,14,422 male and 1,90,473 female voters. Udhampur district follows with 2,86,778 electors including 1,51,902 male and 1,34,876 female electors. Reasi district has 2,11,723 registered voters who include 1,10,702 male and 1,01,021 female voters while Doda district has 1,66,611 voters including 86,551 male and 80,060 female voters. Likewise, Ramban district has 1,48,018 voters who include 78,222 male and 69,796 female voters while Kishtwar district has 1,44,357 total electors including 74,606 male and 69,751 female voters.